Neotropical glassfrogs (family Centrolenidae) are among the most charismatic amphibians in the world (1). Their translucent skin, delicate morphology, and unique reproductive strategies make them icons of biodiversity (1, 2). Yet beneath their beauty lies a sobering reality: climate change is reshaping their habitats faster than they can adapt (3). A recent study (4) has developed models of future climate scenarios for 69 threatened glassfrog species, showing that the Andes and the Amazon Basin could experience drastic climate change, as well as an alarming decline in suitable habitat and evolutionary diversity. For institutions involved in designing protected areas, monitoring programs, or recovery initiatives, these findings are not merely academic.
Data analysis
This study assessed the current and future distribution of threatened Neotropical glassfrogs by integrating species distribution models (SDMs), diversity metrics, and evolutionary risk indices. Occurrence records were compiled from validated field surveys and curated databases, with species represented by fewer than five records modeled only under current climatic conditions. Model performance was evaluated using the True Skill Statistic (TSS) and omission rates, and ensemble projections were weighted by TSS to generate robust estimates of present-day distributions. Future distributions were projected using two global circulation models (CMCC-ESM2 and GISS-E2-1-G) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios. Continuous suitability outputs were converted into binary presence–absence maps using a threshold (0.9) and integrated into a presence–absence matrix (PAM) to quantify taxonomic diversity (TD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD). The relationship between TD and PD was evaluated using LOESS smoothing, and residual spatial patterns were mapped to identify areas of disproportionate phylogenetic structure. To complement distributional analyses, Evolutionary Distinctiveness (ED) was estimated for each species and combined with extinction risk (GE) to derive EDGE scores. By integrating SDMs, diversity metrics, and evolutionary risk indices, the study identifies spatial congruence between evolutionary uniqueness and vulnerability under climate change. The framework provides a basis for prioritizing conservation areas where threatened glassfrog diversity and evolutionary heritage are most at risk.
Why this matters
In general, the Andes and the Amazon Basin could experience the most severe climate changes; according to projections, at least six species of glassfrogs could lose all their suitable climatic habitat across all evaluated scenarios, putting them at high risk of extinction (4).
Glassfrogs are climate-sensitive: Many species cannot adapt quickly due to niche conservatism, meaning they must track suitable climates geographically rather than evolve new tolerances. Most species exhibit a tendency to shift towards higher elevations, accompanied by a significant reduction in their geographic range (4).
Projected losses: By 2080, most threatened glassfrog species could lose an average of 50% of their current ranges. It is projected that six species (Centrolene altitudinalis, Centrolene condor, Hyalinobatrachium duranti, Nymphargus lasgralarias, Nymphargus prasinus, and Vitreorana helenae) could lose all their suitable habitat, while global phylogenetic diversity could decline by 30% (4).
Refuge zones: The northwest Andean montane forests (Ecuador and Colombia) are repeatedly identified as future hotspots for survival; however, less than 36% of projected ranges overlap with existing protected areas (4).
Key implications
For conservation planners today, the study's climate-scenario findings mean that protected areas, monitoring programs, and recovery efforts must anticipate severe habitat loss in the Andes and Amazon Basin, prioritize elevational refuges, and urgently expand coverage in biodiversity hotspots that currently fall outside reserves (4). The projections show that the two hotspots (5) — northwest Andean montane forests of Ecuador and Colombia — will remain critical refuges for glassfrog diversity, but less than 36% of their future ranges overlap with existing reserves (4). This means new protected areas should be strategically placed to capture upslope elevational gradients, since most species are expected to move higher as climates warm. Designing reserves that connect habitats across elevations and linking fragmented montane forests will be essential to safeguard shifting ranges. In practice, this means prioritizing conservation corridors and expanding coverage in biodiversity hotspots that are currently underrepresented in the reserve network.
The findings also highlight urgent priorities for monitoring and species recovery. It is projected that at least six species could lose all climatic suitability across all scenarios, making them candidates for intensive monitoring and, potentially, for ex situ conservation (captive breeding, gene banks). Monitoring programs should track climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation shifts, especially drying in the Amazon and warming in the Andes, while also assessing genetic diversity, given the projected 30–40% loss of phylogenetic diversity (4). Recovery efforts should emphasize landscape connectivity to allow dispersal upslope, and prioritize species with high EDGE scores, since their extinction would represent disproportionate evolutionary loss.
In short, the climate-scenario results mean that conservation planning cannot rely on static reserves or current species ranges. Instead, it must anticipate range shifts, extinction risks, and evolutionary uniqueness, integrating these into protected area expansion, monitoring design, and recovery strategies.
What comes next
The Evolutionary Conservation Hotspots (4) framework is not merely a warning but a blueprint for action. It calls for institutions to expand and interconnect protected areas with upslope climate refugia. Recovery strategies should prioritize landscape connectivity through dispersal corridors, incorporate ex situ conservation for species facing imminent risk, and focus on taxa with high EDGE scores, whose loss would represent a disproportionate erosion of evolutionary history. Conservation planning must move beyond static reserves and current distributional ranges, integrating climate projections, evolutionary distinctiveness, and extinction risk into proactive strategies to safeguard glassfrogs and other threatened amphibians.
Acknowledgements
We thank the people and institutions that provided records of species occurrences, and Jaime Culebras for providing the photographs used to illustrate the figures.
References
- Guayasamin, J. M., Cisneros-Heredia, D. F., McDiarmid, R. W., Peña, P., & Hutter, C. R. (2020). Glassfrogs of Ecuador: diversity, evolution, and conservation. Diversity, 12(6), 222.
- Frost, D. R. (2026). Amphibian Species of the World: an Online Reference. Version 6.2. American Museum of Natural History, New York, USA. https://doi.org/10.5531/db.vz.0001
- Delia Basanta, M., Velasco, J. A., & González-Salazar, C. (2025). Epidemiological landscape of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and its impact on amphibian diversity at global scale. Wildlife Biology, 2025(5), e01166.
- Vega-Yánez, M. A., Velasco, J. A., Hutter, C. R., Franco-Mena, D., Amador, L., & Guayasamin, J. M. (2026). Evolutionary conservation hotspots: key areas for threatened Neotropical glassfrogs under climate change scenarios. PeerJ, 14, e21165. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.21165
- Myers, N., Mittermeier, R. A., Mittermeier, C. G., Da Fonseca, G. A. B., & Kent, J. (2000). Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature, 403(6772), 853–858.
The underlying study
The findings summarized here come from Vega-Yánez et al. (2026), "Evolutionary conservation hotspots: key areas for threatened Neotropical glassfrogs under climate change scenarios," published in PeerJ — also listed in this issue's From the journals section.